Download Annual Review of Political Science (2003, Vol 6) by Margaret Levi, Nelson W. Polsby (Editors) PDF

By Margaret Levi, Nelson W. Polsby (Editors)

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Late in the period when this research was taking place, Browne and coauthors began working on what seemed a completely different research program (Browne et al. 1984a,b, 1986; Frendreis et al. 1986; see also Cioffi-Revilla 1984). Their approach looked different because it was essentially stochastic. The grounding assumption, also very plausible, was that governments exist in a world of “critical events”—scandals, international conflicts, financial and monetary crises, the deaths and illnesses of key personalities—each of which poses a threat to the life of the incumbent administration.

All early published empirical work on government termination used a linear ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology that we now know was very unsuited to the problem at hand; for example, it was quite capable of predicting governments with negative durations on the basis of plausible values of independent variables. The event-history models of government duration that emerged in the early 1990s as a result of this debate effectively subsumed many of its arguments in a more encompassing methodology; they have now become de rigeur in the field.

S Bowler, DM Farrell, RS Katz. Columbus: Ohio State Univ. Press Mershon C. 2001. Party factions and coalition government: portfolio allocation in Italian Christian democracy. Elect. Stud. 20(4):509– 27 Sanders D, Herman V. 1977. The stability and survival of governments in western democracies. Acta Polit. 12:346–77 Strom K. 1985. Party goals and government performance in parliamentary democracies. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 79:738–54 Strom K. 1988. Contending models of cabinet stability. Am. Polit. Sci.

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